✍️ By K. B. Udayabhanu | Kerala | ajournalist5@gmail.com
Kerala’s farm commodity markets are sending mixed signals. While Goldman Sachs has predicted a significant surge in global cocoa prices — driven by unfavorable weather in West Africa and policy failures in producing nations — pepper, coffee, and rubber farmers in Kerala are battling falling prices, mounting debt risks, and market volatility.
Despite global commodity movements, the benefits are not trickling down evenly. Cardamom provides a rare bright spot, while rubber continues its price decline. Here is a crop-by-crop breakdown of where the Kerala farm market stands today.
🍫 Cocoa — The Goldman Sachs Effect
The prediction by global financial institution Goldman Sachs has come as a whirlwind that is boosting the cocoa production sector. Unfavorable weather conditions and the stance of the governments of Ghana and Ivory Coast, which are unable to provide necessary support to producers, have led to this. The price of cocoa will rise worldwide — a prediction made by the financial giant that could benefit farmers and those in the processing industry.
Goldman Sachs also clarifies that the change in climate in Nigeria and Cameroon has adversely affected production. With the release of their report, the price of cocoa has soared again, and its reflection was also seen in the market in recent days.
In the local market, the price recorded for green cocoa recently was from ₹220 to ₹230. Winter production reached ₹425. However, farmers do not have enough stock to meet the sudden demand. Production can be expected if the price reaches ₹500.
The price journey of cocoa has been dramatic:
March (Prev Year)
$2,570 / tonne
April (Prev Year)
$5,689 / tonne
May (Prev Year)
$2,600 / tonne
April (This Year)
$11,850 / tonne
Mid-June
$9,200 / tonne
⚠️ Key Challenge: Even though prices have soared globally, farmers do not have enough stock to meet the sudden demand. Production can only be ramped up to meet the demand after some time.
🌶️ Pepper — Farmers Trapped in Price Volatility
The price drop is further weakening pepper. What worries farmers at the beginning of the new financial year is the volatility in the market. There are many challenges — climate and disruptions in the international market are the main ones.
2 Years Ago
₹6,000/kg
then surged to ₹7,000
Ungraded (Current)
₹550/kg
Graded (Current)
₹600/kg
Farmer Demand (Minimum)
₹53,300+
🚨 Debt Trap Warning: Farmers demand that they should get more than ₹53,300. If prices fall below this, all farmers will be in a debt trap.
Previously, the price for garbled pepper was ₹560 and for ungarbled was ₹540. As the new pepper season is over, the price will not increase now.
☕ Coffee — Record High to Rapid Fall
In international markets, the price of various types of coffee is falling. If the current situation continues, the price is likely to fall further. The decrease in demand for coffee in the international market has been a setback, increasing the worries of coffee farmers. The fact that production was not as expected this time was an additional setback.
Last year, coffee had received a record price. In February, Robusta cherry coffee was priced at ₹283, and in Mattancherry, it was ₹270. At the same time, many farmers had already sold their produce when the price reached ₹285.
🌍 Brazil Factor: Favorable weather in Brazil is expected to increase the chances of a good harvest, which will affect the international market and put further downward pressure on prices.
Coffee is one of the main crops in Wayanad. This falling price trend is a severe blow to the farmers in the region.
🌿 Cardamom — A Rare Bright Spot
For days, there has been no change in the price of cardamom — it continues at the same level. With the favorable weather in Kerala, farmers are hopeful.
🏆 Auction Highlight — Puttady Spices Park:
In the e-auction held at Puttady Spices Park on Friday under the leadership of the Cardamom Producers’ Association, cardamom with a size of 8.5 mm fetched an average price of ₹1,600 in the auction by Green Gold Cardamom Marketing Company. This is the highest price in the market.
The fact that a higher price was obtained than in previous auctions has brought relief to farmers. It is expected that the price of high-quality cardamom will increase further in the market.
🌳 Rubber — Holding Firm Despite Price Decline
The price decline of rubber continues in the market. The stance of tire companies is putting farmers in a deeper crisis. The lack of import duty on rubber is accelerating the price drop. The schemes announced by the government to solve the crisis faced by the plantation sector have not materialized either.
RSS-4 Grade
₹165/kg
Fifth Grade
₹143/kg
Foreign Market Premium
₹20+ higher than local
💡 Silver Lining: The fact that the price is more than ₹20 higher in foreign markets is more helpful to traders. Farmers hope that rubber production can begin with the arrival of summer rains. Farmers also say that compared to other crops, it is rubber that is resisting the price drop most effectively.
📊 Kerala Crop Price Summary at a Glance
| Crop | Current Price | Trend | Key Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🍫 Cocoa (Green) | ₹220–₹230 | 📈 Rising | Global high: $11,850/tonne |
| 🌶️ Pepper (Ungraded) | ₹550/kg | 📉 Falling | Farmers need ₹53,300+ minimum |
| ☕ Coffee (Robusta) | ₹283 (Feb) | 📉 Falling | Brazil harvest may push further down |
| 🌿 Cardamom (8.5mm) | ₹1,600 (avg) | 📈 Stable/Rising | Highest auction price recorded |
| 🌳 Rubber (RSS-4) | ₹165/kg | 📉 Declining | Most resilient among declining crops |
❓ FAQ
Why did cocoa prices rise so dramatically in 2024?
Cocoa prices surged due to unfavorable weather conditions in key producing countries like Ghana, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Cameroon. Governments in these nations were unable to provide adequate support to producers. Goldman Sachs predicted this surge, and the price eventually hit a record $11,850 per tonne globally in April.
What is the current pepper price in Kerala and why are farmers worried?
Currently, ungraded pepper is priced at ₹550/kg and graded at ₹600/kg in Kerala. Farmers demand a minimum of ₹53,300 to avoid falling into a debt trap. Two years ago, pepper fetched ₹6,000–₹7,000/kg, making the current price a severe decline that threatens farm livelihoods.
How is the coffee price decline affecting Wayanad farmers?
Coffee is a primary crop in Wayanad, and the ongoing price decline in international markets is a severe blow to farmers in the region. Decreased global demand and the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil are likely to push prices even lower, compounding the distress of local coffee growers.
What was the highest cardamom price at Puttady Spices Park auction?
At the recent e-auction held at Puttady Spices Park under the Cardamom Producers’ Association, 8.5mm size cardamom fetched an average price of ₹1,600 through Green Gold Cardamom Marketing Company — the highest recorded price in the market. Favorable weather in Kerala has farmers hopeful of further price increases for premium quality cardamom.
Why are rubber prices falling in Kerala and what are farmers doing about it?
The absence of import duty on rubber, the stance of tire companies, and unfulfilled government support schemes are driving rubber prices down. RSS-4 grade currently fetches ₹165/kg while the fifth grade gets ₹143/kg. However, farmers note that rubber is still the most price-resilient crop compared to others and are hopeful with the onset of summer rains.
Will global cocoa price rise benefit Kerala farmers directly?
While global cocoa prices have soared to record highs, Kerala farmers cannot immediately benefit due to insufficient stock. Production cannot be ramped up overnight to match sudden demand. Farmers expect meaningful gains only when prices reach around ₹500 locally and supply stabilizes over time.
What is the role of Goldman Sachs in Kerala’s cocoa market outlook?
Goldman Sachs released a report predicting that global cocoa prices would continue rising, citing adverse weather in major producing countries and weak government support in Ghana and Ivory Coast. Their prediction triggered an immediate market reaction, causing cocoa prices to soar again. The local market in Kerala reflected this momentum in recent trading sessions.
